The 2023 Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Agreement: A Turning Point in the Gulf Relations

In the realm of international diplomacy, certain events have the power to reshape the geopolitical landscape and capture the world's attention. The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023 stands as one such significant development. This landmark agreement holds the promise of transforming the dynamics of the Middle East and fostering a sense of political détente in the region.

Undoubtedly, the Saudi Arabia-Iran agreement to restore diplomatic ties is the most important development of 2023. It marks a crucial milestone in the turbulent history between the two regional powers. The agreement carries implications that extend far beyond their bilateral relationship, impacting regional stability and global geopolitics.

One of the immediate outcomes of this agreement is the opportunity for Saudi Arabia to exit the protracted war in Yemen in a dignified fashion. The conflict has taken a toll on both nations. Militarily, the war is a strain on the coffers of both states and at the humanitarian level the people of Yemen have suffered the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet. Although Saudi Arabia has worked with international bodies to alleviate this, war alone is an unbearable burden on any population. Add to that cholera, COVID, poverty, famine, terrorism, state failure, and civil war and you will have created the Yemeni perfect storm. The primary beneficiary of this restoration of diplomatic relations at the civil level could thus very well be the Yemeni people. Saudi Arabia can now seek a diplomatic solution to the Yemeni crisis and focus on rebuilding the war-torn nation that will serve its interest of creating stability on its southern border. It is important to note here that the Houthis are not strictly an Iranian proxy. They are not Hezbollah per-se. The occurrence of the war makes an alliance with Iran convenient. However, if Saudi Arabia is able to manage the peace process adeptly, they can work with the Houthis as they did during the Mutwakilite era of Yemen.

This diplomatic breakthrough occurs within an atmosphere that yearns for an end to the Syrian Civil War, too. The agreement paves the way for recognizing Bashar Al-Assad's regime and reinstating Syria's membership in the Arab League, which has taken place almost immediately before the Arab League summit which saw the Syrian leader attend the summit which ironically had President Zelensky as its guest of honour. The UAE and Bahrain have already restored ambassadorial representation to Damascus. In doing so, the Arabs are taking the lead in the restoration of Syria to the international system. There too, the people have suffered immensely and they rightly deserve a respite from the horrors of the last decade. These developments indicate a willingness among regional actors to prioritize stability and unity over prolonged conflict and political divisions.

Notably, the fact that the Saudi Arabia-Iran agreement was brokered by Beijing and not the United States signifies Saudi Arabia's determination to chart an independent path in its foreign policy. While this move does not indicate enmity towards the US, it does underline the kingdom's desire to prioritize its own national interests. Saudi Arabia's willingness to seek diplomatic solutions outside of traditional Western alliances highlights its commitment to an assertive and autonomous foreign policy, which will serve it in the years to come as it pursues greater regional nationalistic authority.

Moreover, this agreement bolsters Saudi Arabia's national pride by signaling that it will not recognize Israel for an insignificant price. The Saudi government did offer recognition in exchange for nuclear capabilities being offered by Washington, but it was also clear that this offer was designed for rejection. Thus, by taking a firm stance on the issue, Saudi Arabia reinforces its commitment to the Palestinian cause and displays its dedication to supporting the rights of the Palestinian people. Such a credential is vital for the continuation of Saudi Arabia’s reputation as the leading Arab and Islamic power during a time of disunity and anarchy in the Arab Nation. This is particularly important for Saudi Arabia during these years when the influence of Islamism is waning in the Middle East. As such, Saudi Arabia’s reinforcement of its Arab identity in spite of its domestic reopening is vital to global and intra-Arab perceptions of Saudi Arabia under the leadership of Prince Mohamed bin Salman.

This is not to say that Saudi Arabia has ruled out recognition of Israel. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia has opened its airspace to Israel and it is likely that relations between the two countries take place in neighbouring Gulf States that have normalized their relations with them. The added sensitivity for Saudi Arabia in establishing diplomatic ties with Israel lies in the fact that Saudi Arabia is the de-facto leader of the Arab and Muslim world because of its geographic size, national identify, geographic importance, military capability, and custodianship of the two holy mosques (the most important sites in Islam). Moreover, they have traditionally led the charge in boycotting Israel during the oil embargoes of the past century whenever the Arabs went to war against Israel and they are the authors of the Arab Peace Initiative. That document outlines the manner in which the Arabs are willing to end the Arab-Israeli conflict diplomatically, so for Saudi Arabia to abandon its own plan would essentially nullify all Arab attempts to end that conflict diplomatically. Furthermore, the fact that in spite of the Abraham Accords disunity and fragmentation exists in Israel with racism towards the Arabs despite all the progress created by the Abraham Accords does not encourage Saudi Arabia to follow in those footsteps just yet. Saudi Arabia is merely pursuing its national interests and this decision resonates with the Saudi population and enhances the kingdom's domestic legitimacy.

Perhaps one of the most significant long-term consequences of the Saudi Arabia-Iran agreement is the potential for calmer relations between the two nations. By establishing diplomatic ties, both countries can engage in dialogue and pursue avenues of cooperation. This newfound détente could have far-reaching effects on regional stability and security, offering hope for a more peaceful Middle East. However, the sustainability of this agreement hinges on two critical factors. Firstly, it depends on Iran's commitment to stability and good neighbourliness. The success of the Saudi Arabia-Iran diplomatic efforts necessitates Iran's willingness to respect the sovereignty of neighbouring states and refrain from interfering in their internal affairs. Mutual respect and adherence to international norms are paramount for long-lasting peace in the region. Secondly, the sustainability of the agreement depends on Iran halting its pursuit of nuclear weapons. A nuclear weapon-free Middle East is in the interest of all parties involved, and while the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a significant step towards regional stability, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it will respond to the threat of a nuclear Iran one way or another. Ensuring a denuclearized Middle East is essential to maintaining the delicate balance of power in the region.